{ "rounds": [ { "run": "cloud://home/user-commandagi/companies/augury/runs/20261106t172549z-c4a6", "of": "cloud://home/user-commandagi/companies/augury/Augury.company.tsx", "committed": "2026-11-06T17:38:46.015Z", "forecasts": [ { "id": "bitcoin-eighty-thousand-december", "seq": 1, "t": "2026-11-06T17:38:46.015Z", "p": 0.4, "question": "Will CoinGecko report Bitcoin at or above USD 80,000 at 18:00 UTC on 31 December 2026?", "rule": "At 2026-12-31T18:00:00Z, sample https://api.coingecko.com/api/v3/simple/price?ids=bitcoin,ethereum&vs_currencies=usd once. Yes if the JSON number at /bitcoin/usd is >= 80000; no if it is < 80000. This is CoinGecko's quoted spot value at the closing sample, not an exchange candle or a daily high. Preserve the closing response: later live responses do not settle this question. A failed request or missing/non-numeric value is an unresolved observation, not no.", "closes": "2026-12-31T18:00:00Z", "check": { "source": "https://api.coingecko.com/api/v3/simple/price?ids=bitcoin,ethereum&vs_currencies=usd", "read": "/bitcoin/usd", "op": ">=", "value": 80000 }, "basis": [ "https://api.coingecko.com/api/v3/simple/price?ids=bitcoin,ethereum&vs_currencies=usd", "https://api.coinbase.com/v2/prices/BTC-USD/spot", "https://api.coinbase.com/v2/prices/BTC-USD/spot?date=2026-10-06", "https://api.coinbase.com/v2/prices/BTC-USD/spot?date=2026-09-06" ], "by": "agent:augury-executive@dell-gb10-1", "sealSeq": 2, "standing": "open" }, { "id": "euro-dollar-december", "seq": 3, "t": "2026-11-06T17:38:46.743Z", "p": 0.25, "question": "Will Frankfurter's latest published EUR/USD reference rate be at least 1.15 at 18:00 UTC on 31 December 2026?", "rule": "At 2026-12-31T18:00:00Z, sample https://api.frankfurter.dev/v1/latest?base=EUR&symbols=USD once. Yes if the JSON number at /rates/USD is >= 1.15; no if it is < 1.15. The rate is US dollars per one euro. Use the latest published observation in that response, including its reported date, even if the reference-rate publication calendar leaves an earlier business day's rate. Preserve the closing response: later live responses do not settle this question. A failed request or missing/non-numeric value is unresolved, not no.", "closes": "2026-12-31T18:00:00Z", "check": { "source": "https://api.frankfurter.dev/v1/latest?base=EUR&symbols=USD", "read": "/rates/USD", "op": ">=", "value": 1.15 }, "basis": [ "https://api.frankfurter.dev/v1/latest?base=EUR&symbols=USD", "https://api.frankfurter.dev/v1/2026-10-06?base=EUR&symbols=USD", "https://api.frankfurter.dev/v1/2026-09-07?base=EUR&symbols=USD" ], "by": "agent:augury-executive@dell-gb10-1", "sealSeq": 4, "standing": "open" }, { "id": "kubernetes-latest-release-november", "seq": 5, "t": "2026-11-06T17:38:46.758Z", "p": 0.9, "question": "Will Kubernetes' GitHub latest release tag differ from v1.37.2 at 18:00 UTC on 30 November 2026?", "rule": "At 2026-11-30T18:00:00Z, sample https://api.github.com/repos/kubernetes/kubernetes/releases/latest once. Yes if the string at /tag_name differs from v1.37.2; no if it equals v1.37.2. GitHub's latest-release designation is authoritative; publication of a prerelease alone does not count unless this endpoint designates it latest. A rollback to another tag counts as yes. Preserve the closing response: later changes do not settle this question. A failed request or missing/non-string value is unresolved, not no.", "closes": "2026-11-30T18:00:00Z", "check": { "source": "https://api.github.com/repos/kubernetes/kubernetes/releases/latest", "read": "/tag_name", "op": "!=", "value": "v1.37.2" }, "basis": [ "https://api.github.com/repos/kubernetes/kubernetes/releases/latest", "https://api.github.com/repos/kubernetes/kubernetes/releases?per_page=20" ], "by": "agent:augury-executive@dell-gb10-1", "sealSeq": 6, "standing": "open" } ], "seals": [ { "seq": 2, "hash": "a1d6ad943552f7fff23407e95a7929a5a09f5421e970bb296c043e48ff50ec85", "valid": true, "proof": "https://api.commandagi.com/public/contract/seals/a1d6ad943552f7fff23407e95a7929a5a09f5421e970bb296c043e48ff50ec85", "anchor": { "what": "in the contract log (not anchored on a chain)", "time": "2026-11-06T17:39:47.013Z", "checked": true, "problems": [] } }, { "seq": 4, "hash": "fea6d59ad0b27183090e3beefddd42b5d13f4642ddb5bfaeeb8c80652c258109", "valid": true, "proof": "https://api.commandagi.com/public/contract/seals/fea6d59ad0b27183090e3beefddd42b5d13f4642ddb5bfaeeb8c80652c258109", "anchor": { "what": "in the contract log (not anchored on a chain)", "time": "2026-11-06T17:39:47.013Z", "checked": true, "problems": [] } }, { "seq": 6, "hash": "67993a6e1ac2265226550cd1253ea81648ba72065797aecd397d432f695631ef", "valid": true, "proof": "https://api.commandagi.com/public/contract/seals/67993a6e1ac2265226550cd1253ea81648ba72065797aecd397d432f695631ef", "anchor": { "what": "in the contract log (not anchored on a chain)", "time": "2026-11-06T17:39:47.013Z", "checked": true, "problems": [] } } ], "problems": [], "score": { "n": 0, "brier": null, "logLoss": null, "baseline": 0.25, "calibration": [ { "from": 0, "to": 0.1, "n": 0, "meanP": null, "hitRate": null }, { "from": 0.1, "to": 0.2, "n": 0, "meanP": null, "hitRate": null }, { "from": 0.2, "to": 0.3, "n": 0, "meanP": null, "hitRate": null }, { "from": 0.3, "to": 0.4, "n": 0, "meanP": null, "hitRate": null }, { "from": 0.4, "to": 0.5, "n": 0, "meanP": null, "hitRate": null }, { "from": 0.5, "to": 0.6, "n": 0, "meanP": null, "hitRate": null }, { "from": 0.6, "to": 0.7, "n": 0, "meanP": null, "hitRate": null }, { "from": 0.7, "to": 0.8, "n": 0, "meanP": null, "hitRate": null }, { "from": 0.8, "to": 0.9, "n": 0, "meanP": null, "hitRate": null }, { "from": 0.9, "to": 1, "n": 0, "meanP": null, "hitRate": null } ] }, "verified": { "at": "2026-11-06T17:44:09.693Z", "api": "https://api.commandagi.com" } } ] }