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Strategies

Choose the plan that holds.

A strategy is a rule over the trials' outcomes. Write the rule, and the trials tell you where it holds and where it breaks.

Try it liveRead the formats
A geoeconomics simulation on a globe in the CommandAGI workbench: oil flows from the Persian Gulf to China, India, Japan, South Korea, Europe and the United States drawn as arcs, each country coloured by its oil inflow, while the globe turns slowly from the Gulf toward the Pacific.
Recorded in the workbench: the geo-hormuz world on its globe. Its numbers are illustrative, not data.

From trials to a choice

A rule, read against every run.

The trials give each contingency's outcome. A strategy's rule is checked against each one, so the choice says which contingencies it survives.

How a strategy is chosen from trialsA sweep of trials gives one outcome for each contingency. A strategy states a rule over those outcomes, such as a floor on a reserve and a ceiling on a price. Each trial passes or fails the rule, and the strategy that holds over the most contingencies is the one to choose. An agent can write the rule and read the result.The trialsone outcome a contingencyA strategy's ruleIndia ≥ 35 mb, price ≤ $120Check each trialpass or failWhere it holdsthe contingencies it survivesHow a strategy is chosen from trialsA sweep of trials gives one outcome for each contingency. A strategy states a rule over those outcomes, such as a floor on a reserve and a ceiling on a price. Each trial passes or fails the rule, and the strategy that holds over the most contingencies is the one to choose. An agent can write the rule and read the result.The trialsone outcome acontingencyA strategy's ruleIndia ≥ 35 mb, price≤ $120Check each trialpass or failWhere it holdsthe contingencies it survives

Read the formats

The rule holds up to 1.8.

India's reserve must end at half of its 70 million barrels or more, and the price must stay at or under $120. Each line is one trial of the sweep.

case-studies/hormuz/stats.json · trials, checkedthe engine's outcomes · simulation · 2026-11-04
escalation 0.0–1.2  India 70.0–64.8  peak  $80.0–90.5  holds
escalation 1.5      India 57.2       peak $103.9       holds
escalation 1.8      India 49.0       peak $117.3       holds
escalation 2.1      India 40.5       peak $130.7       fails: price
escalation 2.4      India 31.8       peak $144.1       fails: price, reserve
escalation 2.7      India 23.5       peak $155.8       fails: price, reserve
escalation 3.0      India 20.9       peak $155.9       fails: price, reserve

The importer's reserve

Above 2.1, the reserve breaks too.

India's strategic stock at the end of each 120-day trial, against the floor of 35 million barrels (case-studies/hormuz/stats.json).

The rule is yours. The floor and the ceiling here are an example rule, not advice. Write the rule that matters to you. An agent can do it. Ask an agent in a thread to sweep the world and check a rule. It runs the trials as tools and shows its work. Every contingency, on the record. Each trial is a run with its settings, so anyone can check the choice by running it again.

trials hold the rule
7 of 11
the highest escalation that holds
1.8
the reserve's floor in the rule
35 mb

Simulated

India's reserve at day 120 by escalation, million barrels
Les chiffres
India's reserve at day 120 by escalation, million barrels
EscalationIndia's stock
070
0.370
0.670
0.970
1.264.8
1.557.2
1.849
2.140.5
2.431.8
2.723.5
320.9
ProvenanceFile cloud://global/examples/template-library/worlds/geo-hormuz/world.tsxOutput case-studies/hormuz/stats.jsonTool scripts/sites/case-studies.mjs hormuz: sim-engine.jsRan on This computer (dell-gb10-1)When

Write a rule. Test it on every trial.

The world, the trials and the rule are files you can read.

Try it liveSee trials