Pull one lever, see what moves.
An intervention is a parameter of a run. Set it, run the world, and compare the run with the one before it, line by line.
A lever
The lever is in the file.
A world declares its parameters with their bounds. A run records the values it ran with, so an intervention is never a hidden edit.
The run names its lever.
The run that ships with the world records the values it ran with. Any run you make records yours the same way.
{
"of": "../../world.tsx",
"reality": "simulation",
"title": "geo-hormuz: 120 days, escalation 1.8 (synthetic)",
"simulator": {
"driver": "sim",
"settings": { "hz": 1, "record_hz": 1, "param.escalation": 1.8, "param.sa_exposure": 0.6, "param.complementarity": 0.3 }
}
}Three interventions
Escalation 1.2, 1.8, 2.4: the price follows.
The one engine stepped the world three times with only escalation changed (case-studies/hormuz/stats.json).
Recorded before it runs. A command a principal gives a running simulation is recorded before the engine gets it, then the step it took effect at. Fork, then change. Fork a run at a moment and set a lever from there. The fork names the run it came from. Honest about the model. This world's numbers are round numbers of the right order. It says so in its own description.
- peak at escalation 1.2
- $90.5
- peak at 1.8
- $117.3
- peak at 2.4
- $144.1
Simulated
In the geo-hormuz simulation the oil price peaks at $90.5 with escalation 1.2, $117.2 with 1.8 and $144.0 with 2.4, all around day 70, and returns to about $80 by day 120. Illustrative numbers, not data.
The numbers
| Day | Escalation 1.2 | Escalation 1.8 | Escalation 2.4 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 80 | 80 | 80 |
| 10 | 80 | 80 | 80 |
| 20 | 80 | 87 | 98 |
| 30 | 87 | 108 | 130 |
| 40 | 89.5 | 115 | 140 |
| 50 | 90.2 | 117 | 143 |
| 60 | 90.4 | 117 | 144 |
| 70 | 90.5 | 117 | 144 |
| 80 | 86.6 | 112 | 136 |
| 90 | 81.3 | 91.5 | 109 |
| 100 | 80.3 | 82.3 | 86.3 |
| 110 | 80.1 | 80.4 | 81.2 |
| 120 | 80 | 80.1 | 80.2 |
cloud://global/examples/template-library/worlds/geo-hormuz/world.tsxOutput case-studies/hormuz/stats.jsonTool scripts/sites/case-studies.mjs hormuz: sim-engine.jsRan on This computer (dell-gb10-1)When Try your own intervention.
Open the world and set its parameters.